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        1. Freddy Hutter, data analyst







          Freddy Hutter, data analyst



          thanx

          I've been sharing updates of my "Covid Fatalities Projections" since April 2020 and updates of my "Yukon Protocol" since Aug/2009.  The latter provides policymakers & the public with my calculations of each nation's obligation to meet their commitment to the UN's Green Climate Fund.  As re-affirmed at COP26-Glasgow-2021, the world's 114 least mature economies may draw upon the Fund to build green infrastructure.  Below is a list of the top 100 cumulative co2 emitters - calculated back to Year 1750 - and their annual assessments.

          TRENDLines Research began publishing real estate stats in 1989 and conducted political polling & election projections in several nations shortly thereafter.  In the coming months I hope to publish a variety of my other macro-economic models:  the TRENDLines Recession Indicator (USA, Canada & China), historic Realty Bubbles (USA, Canada, UK & Australia), Peak Oil projection, Gasoline & Oil Price Components, projected Sea Level by Year 2100 & projected co2 ppm by Year 2100.


          TRENDLines Research

          charts@

          facebook.com/TRENDLinesResearch

          twitter.com/TrendlinesDotCa

          112 Deep Bay Marina
          Box 191 Bowser BC Canada V0R1G0
          (250) 918-5325
          from  canada, eh!
          TRENDLines Research  ...   providing macro-economic charts & guidance for legislators, policymakers, investors, stakeholders & the public
          long-term multi-disciplinary perspectives by Freddy Hutter since 1989 - TRENDLines Research removes the noise from economic & science data to reveal the underlying trends

          ~

          TRENDLines Research's
          Covid Fatalities Projections

          covid may2022
          new
          "future deaths" figures above are updated weekly at:  www.twitter.com/TrendlinesDotCa

          next monthly chart update:  June 17th 2022

          --- until next monthly composite chart update on June 17 2022, see weekly update of "future deaths" at:  www.twitter.com/TrendlinesDotCa

          OMICRON'S SUB-VARIANT WAVE MAY END NOVEMBER 2022!
          PROJECTED FUTURE FATALITIES:  86,000 WORLDWIDE
          incl:  USA 10,800 & UK 3,900 & CANADA 1,880 (incl 670 ONTARIO & 166 BC VICTIMS)

          May 20th 2022 - Based on novel coronavirus's ever-changing mortality rates in recent weeks, today's update of TRENDLines Research's Covid-19 fatalities model projects an ultimate 2020-2022 death count of 6.36 million worldwide (present toll 6.27 million + 86,000 future) incl 1,027,200 in the USA (1,016,400 toll + 10,800 future);  200,200 in the UK (196,300 toll + 3,900 future) & 42,270 in Canada (40,390 toll + 1,880 future) incl 13,790 in Ontario (13,120 toll + 670 future) & 3,564 in BC (3,398 toll + 166 future) - based on current relaxed policymaker mitigation of the Omicron sub-variants.

          Whereas previous lethal coronavirus events (MERS & SARS) were relatively short-lived due to aggressive contact tracing, misguided policymaker mitigation decisions allowed Covid-19 to become a multi-wave pandemic with a projected 35 month duration (assuming no new variants-of-concern).

          This humankind disaster stems from most jurisdictions: (a) adopting the horrific Trump strategy of premature lifting of restrictions (thrice);  (b) reluctance to require/maintain shelter-in-place;  (c) an over-reliance on vaccination programs;  (d) failure to assist vaccination in developing nations;  (e) identifiable leadership complicity in anti-mandate (eg masks, social distancing & vaccinations); & (f) virtually abandoning vigilant testing & contact tracing convention post Delta.

          These failures to isolate the original virus led to successive surges of same and founded an environment for the Alpha, Beta, Delta & Omicron (incl BA2/4/5) variants-of-concern to flourish.  Modelling reveals this event should have been only a six-month episode with 1.1 million fatalities.  Instead, policymaker hubris may have caused 5.2 million unnecessary victims worldwide.  These surplus deaths include 870K in USA, 149K in UK & 29K in Canada (incl 10K in Ontario & 2,900 in BC).

          My Post-Peak Linearization Model indicated prudent mitigation efforts had essentially suppressed Covid's first surge by mid-2020 in the UK & Canada (incl Ontario & BC.  Unfortunately, those early lock-down & shelter-in-place sacrifices proved to be in vain.  Premature relaxation of Orders and restrictions in all four jurisdictions gave rise to new surges upon each attempt at re-opening.  Just as the USA & Global models were to signal suppression in July 2021, the Delta wave overcame the gains.

          In much of the word, similar policymaker mismanagement resulted in a string of five waves (defined as seasonal outbreaks or material strain mutations):  Original, Alpha/Beta, Delta, Omicron & BA2/4/5 sub-variants and surges within those waves.

          As a "post-peak" model, no projections were generated during the strong Delta & Omicron episodes.  Surges in cases, hospitalizations, ICU and deaths since mid 2021 reigned primarily in Vax-hesitant regions.  Excepting developing nations lacking vaccination access, one might surmise there was a lot of Darwin's natural selection at work.  And fortunately, the latter are mostly right-wing qAnons.

          Originally, consensus held natural & community (vaccinated) herd immunity would kick in upon regions attaining 67% infection and/or jabs.  But failure to suppress the original strain, the subsequent spawning of variants-of-concern, broad-based vaccine hesitancy & the inability of vaccines to prevent break-thru cases upon waning immunity appear to have killed off any hope of illusive herd immunity.

          Current model runs indicate Omicron and its sub-variants will transition to endemic status June thru September.  :  late April in Ontario & Canada-wide;  early May in BC & USA;  and early June in UK & Worldwide.  Omicron's BA2 sub-variant is presently forming a 4th Covid19 Wave.  As 34% of the globe still lacks even a first jab, it is highly probable new variants-of-concern will arise this Autumn.

          See website table for archive of all my projections since April 2020.  The model's composite chart, underlying stats & analyst commentary (by Freddy Hutter) are updated monthly at:

            &  www.facebook.com/TRENDLinesResearch

          new weekly update of future deaths projections:  www.twitter.com/TRENDLinesDotCa

          WORLDWIDE
          Based on mortality trends in recent weeks, the TRENDLines Post-Peak Linearization Model projects Omicron's sub-variants (BA2/4/5) will claim yet another 86,000 fatalities across the globe while transitioning to endemic status in mid July and expire in November  -- based on existing policymaker mitigation.  Added to the current toll (6.27 million), an ultimate 6.36 million victims are projected over 2020-2022.  Today's daily-deaths rate (1,600) is down 89% from its January 2021 record high (14,400).  Today 64% of the world's population have at least one jab.  Future variants-of-concern may inflate final numbers.

          Failing a new wave, the model suggests the Covid19 pandemic is 99% complete.  Troubling as today's ultimate projection may be, the alternative natural herd immunity strategy promoted by conspirators would have cost 102 million lives (7.6 billion x 67% x 2.0% Alpha/Beta case fatality rate) and with no guarantee of permanent immunity.

          The 10 nations with the highest daily-deaths rate today:  USA (260), UK, Brazil, Russia, France, Canada, Thailand, South Korea, Australia & Japan.

          The model reveals 5.2 million souls (of 6.33 mil total) will have perished unnecessarily due to misguided policymaker decisions to prematurely re-open.

          41% of worldwide victims resided in long-term care facilities.

          Worldwide
          mortality rate:  0.08% or 813 deaths/million population

          USA
          The model similarly projects Omicron's sub-variants (BA2/4/5) will claim yet another 10,800 fatalities across America while transitioning to endemic status in mid June and expiring in September -- based on existing policymaker mitigation.  Added to the current toll (1,016,400), an ultimate 1,027,200 victims are projected over 2020-2022.  Omicron's BA4/5 sub-variants and future variants-of-concern may inflate final numbers.

          Today's daily-deaths rate (260) is 93% below its Jan/2021 record high (3,500).  The States with the most daily-deaths today are California (39), New York, Kansas, Pennsylvania, Georgia & Texas.

          Failing a new wave, the model suggests the USA's Covid19 pandemic is 99% complete.  Troubling as today's ultimate projection may be, the absurd natural herd immunity policy promoted by the Trump White House would have cost 3.9 million American lives (327 million x 67% x 1.8% Alpha/Beta case fatality rate) with no guarantee of permanent immunity.

          During a White House Rose Garden virtual town hall on March 25th 2020, the former President proposed packing the nation's churches on Easter and return to work the following day.  It was on this precise day America was infected with "the TrumpVirus".  On that day the USA had only 4% of global Covid deaths - apropos considering the nation has 4% of the world's population.

          It marked the day everything changed.  For context of Trump's containment failure, the USA had over half of worldwide cases & deaths in 2020.  Twenty-six months later, the USA still has 16% of world's cumulative Covid cases, 16% of the today's global "active" cases & 16% of worldwide body bags.  The uncontained TrumpVirus resulted in GDP crashing at a historic -31% pace in 20Q2.  75 million workers initiated unemployment claims due to the pandemic during his term.

          The President caused a TrumpVirus resurgence only for the purpose of salvaging his legacy.  He desperately wanted to avoid voters going to the polls realizing The Donald (alone) was at fault for April 2020's 22% U-6 Unemployment Rate & plunging the U.S. economy into its deepest crash (-31% GDP) ever - including the Great Depression.

          The model reveals reveals 870,000 souls (of 1,015,000 total) will have perished unnecessarily due to misguided policymaker decisions to prematurely re-open.

          Long-term care residents comprise 1% of the USA population but were 36% of Covid19 victims - as high as 73% in some States.  81% of fatalities were over the age of 64 and 95% were over 49.

          USA's mortality rate:  0.30% or 3,009 deaths/million -- 17th worst in world - behind Peru (0.66%), Bulgaria, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Hungary, Georgia, North Macedonia, Croatia, Czechia, Slovakia, Romania, Moldova, Lithuania, Brazil, Slovenia, Poland & Chile.

          UK
          The model projects Omicron's sub-variants (BA2/4/5) will claim yet another 3,900 fatalities across the UK while transitioning to endemic status in mid June and expiring in August -- based on existing policymaker mitigation.  Added to the current toll (196,300), an ultimate 200,200 victims are projected over 2020-2022.  Future variants-of-concern may inflate final numbers.

          The UK's wave#1 was initially suppressed back on Aug 2nd 2020 - when new daily cases sunk below 750 and daily deaths were down to single digits.  The model deemed wave#1 suppressed  a second time (late May 2021) when once again daily-deaths hit single digits.  Today's daily-deaths rate (120) is 90% below its Jan/2021 record high (1,200).

          Failing a new wave, the model suggests the UK's Covid19 pandemic is 98% complete.  Troubling as today's ultimate projection may be, the alternative natural herd immunity strategy promoted by conspirators would have cost 757,000 UK lives (66 million x 67% x 1.7% Alpha/Beta case mortality rate) with no guarantee of permanent immunity.

          The model reveals 149K souls (of 195,650 total) will have perished unnecessarily due to misguided policymaker decisions to prematurely re-open.

          The UK comprises only 1% of global population but has 3% of the Covid19 deaths (down from 11% in April) and 4% of today's world "active" cases.

          37% of victims lived in long-term care homes.

          UK's mortality rate:  0.26% or 2,555 deaths/million (28th worst in world)

          CANADA
          The model projects Omicron's BA2 sub-variant will claim yet another 1,880 fatalities across Canada while transitioning to endemic status in September and expiring in December -- based on existing policymaker mitigation.  Added to the current toll (40,390), an ultimate 42,270 victims are projected over 2020-2022.  Omicron's BA4/5 sub-variants and future variants-of-concern may inflate final numbers.

          The model reveals Canada's wave#1 was initially suppressed on Aug 7th 2020 - when new daily cases sunk below 350 and daily deaths were down to single digits.  Today's daily-deaths rate (37) is 79% below its May 2020 record high (175).

          Failing a new wave, the model suggests Canada's Covid19 pandemic is 96% complete.  Troubling as today's ultimate projection may be, the alternative natural herd immunity strategy promoted by conspirators would have cost 421,000 Canadian lives (37 million x 67% x 1.7% Alpha/Beta case fatality rate) with no guarantee of permanent immunity.

          The model reveals 29K souls (of 38,470 total) will have perished unnecessarily due to misguided policymaker decisions to prematurely re-open.

          Canadian media (CTV & CBC) annually expose nursing home neglect and under-staffing, so there's no surprise this sector saw the most confirmed cases.  69% of Covid19 victims resided or worked in long-term facilities.  88% of fatalities were over the age of 69.

          Canada's mortality rate:  0.10% or 1,021 deaths/million

          ONTARIO
          The
          model projects Omicron's BA2 sub-variant will claim yet another 670 fatalities across Ontario while transitioning to endemic status in September and expiring in December -- based on existing policymaker mitigation.  Added to the current toll (13,120), an ultimate 13,790 victims are projected over 2020-2022.  Omicron's BA4/5 sub-variants and future variants-of-concern may inflate final numbers.

          It reveals Ontario's wave#1 was initially suppressed on July 7th 2020 - when new daily cases sunk below 150 and the Province reported its third consecutive fatality-free day.  Today's daily-deaths rate (13) is 80% below its record highs (60) in May 2020 & Jan/2021.

          Failing a new wave, the model suggests Ontario's pandemic is 95% complete.  Troubling as today's ultimate projection may be, the alternative natural herd immunity strategy promoted by conspirators would have cost 171,000 Ontario lives (15 million x 67% x 1.7% Alpha/Beta case fatality rate) with no guarantee of permanent immunity.

          The model reveals 10K (of 12,750 total) will have perished unnecessarily due to misguided policymaker decisions to prematurely re-open.

          Finding 66% of its Covid deaths in nursing homes, to Ontario's credit it was one of the first jurisdiction to initiate an Inquiry Commission to evaluate the crisis in long-term seniors care facilities.

          Ontario's mortality rate:  0.09% or 852 deaths/million

          BC
          The model projects Omicron's BA2 sub-variant will claim yet another 166 fatalities across the Province while transitioning to endemic status in late June and expiring in August -- based on existing policymaker mitigation.  Added to the current toll (3,398), an ultimate 3,564 victims are projected over 2020-2022.  Omicron's BA4/5 sub-variants and future variants-of-concern may inflate final numbers.

          It reveals BC's wave#1 was initially suppressed way back on June 20th 2020 - when new daily cases had dwindled to single digits and the Province reported its ninth consecutive fatality-free day.  The model deemed wave#1 suppressed  a second time (late July 2021) when once again daily-deaths hit single digits.  And a third when Delta troughed in early January 2022.  Today's daily-deaths rate (8) is down substantially from the record 21/day in December 2020.

          Failing a new wave, the model suggests BC's pandemic is 95% complete.  Troubling as today's ultimate projection may be, the alternative natural herd immunity strategy promoted by conspirators would have cost 33,500 BC lives (5 million x 67% x 1.0% Alpha/Beta case fatality rate) with no guarantee of permanent immunity.

          The model reveals 2K souls (of 3,066 total) will have perished unnecessarily due to misguided policymaker decisions to prematurely re-open.

          BC exhibits among the lowest fatality, mortality & incidence rates across Canada & the globe.  British Columbia & Washington State were the first North American regions to see confirmed cases take off.  Wise leadership quickly contained the spread, had faulty re-opening strategies, but both jurisdictions are again on paths to normality.

          Credit to BC in being among the first to mandate full vaccination for healthcare workers and bar family visitations to nursing homes and disallow care workers from attending multiple long-term residences.  Residents of BC long-term facilities comprise 68% of total fatalities.

          BC mortality rate:  0.06% or 587 deaths/million

          The TRENDLines Research POST-PEAK LINEARIZATION MODEL (PPLM)
          These six Covid19 projections are generated by TR's linearization model.  It extrapolates a jurisdiction's mortality rate after the curve's peak - particularly the most recent days & weeks.  The graph's data points move left to right chronologically above its date's cumulative death toll on the x-axis.  The intersection (asymptote) of their trend line at the x-axis indicates an estimate of the ultimate total deaths.  As daily data points are added, a high y-axis data point (high mortality rate) will shift the bottom of the trend line to the right and a higher fatalities count ... and vice versa.

          There is no medical component aside from tracking daily & cumulative fatalities.  This strictly mathematical model analyzes nuanced gradient changes in a curve's down-slope and assumes no change in gov't guidelines, orders or citizenry behaviour.  This same methodology has been one of the criteria by which TRENDLines Research has determined global & Saudi Arabia oil reserves since 2004.  On request, I can similarly chart any Nation, State, Province or Region - presented alone or with comparatives.

           
          About TRENDLines Research
          Data analyst Freddy Hutter of Vancouver Island BC has developed models & methodologies for macro-economic charts & guidance for policy-makers, stakeholders. legislators, investors, educators, and the public with a long term multi-disciplinary perspective since 1989.  TRENDLines removes the noise in (economic) data to reveal the underlying trends.  Specialties include:  Recession Indicators for Canada, USA & China;  Realty Bubble Indicators for Canada, USA, UK & Australia;  Global Oil Production & Price Component analysis/forecasts; & national, provincial Party & Presidential political election projections.  Covid-19 ultimate deaths forecasting is the most recent endeavour.


          Archive of PPL Model's Projected 2020-2022 Covid19 Fatalities

          BC
          Ontario Canada
          UK
          USA
          World
          newMay 20 2022
          3,56413,79042,270
          200,200
          1,027,200
          6.36 million
          April 8
          3,06612,75038,470
          195,650
          1,015,000
          6.33 million
          March 6
          3,19612,81038,050
          163,180
          1,071,000
          6.31 million
          February
          -- Omicron variant surging in all 6 jurisdictions --
          January 2022 -- Omicron variant surging in all 6 jurisdictions --
          Dec 18 2021
          2,48810,70031,190
          154,200
          889,000
          5.8 million
          Nov 24
          2,36510,11030,700
          150,250
          859,000
          6.1 million
          Oct 9
          2,0549,96029,200
          141,730
          773,000
          5.6 million
          September -- Delta variant surging in all 6 jurisdictions --
          August
          -- Delta variant surging in all 6 jurisdictions --
          July 5
          1,7789,80027,020
          128,990
          621,000
          4.4 million
          June 2
          1,8079,44027,490
          128,435
          655,000
          4,560,000
          May 3
          2,257
          8,60025,820
          128,200
          650,000
          4,320,000
          April 1
          1,668
          7,96524,070
          127,460
          584,000
          7,700,000
          March 1
          1,406
          7,27022,840
          127,100
          570,000
          2,900,000
          Feb 3
          1,317
          7,68022,260
          129,500
          520,000
          2,730,000
          Jan 18
          1,250
          7,81022,700
          102,700
          604,000
          8,950,000
          Jan 2 2021
          1,151
          5,56019,000
          139,000
          763,000
          4,400,000
          Dec 16 2020
          -
          4,22015,330
          89,000
          599,000
          3,190,000
          Nov 20
          -
          -13,400
          -396,000
          2,110,000
          Oct 20
          412
          3,54010,800
          46,500295,000
          1,970,000
          Oct 10
          374
          3,5409,840
          44,450289,000
          2,090,000
          Sept 30
          290
          3,03810,160
          44,800270,000
          1,670,000
          Sept 20
          437
          2,9479,895
          43,840266,000
          1,730,000
          Sept 10
          277
          2,9059,440
          42,200245,000
          1,440,000
          Sept 5
          274
          2,909 9,460
          42,120 267,000
          1,410,000
          Aug 30
          216
          2,9299,450
          42,230284,000
          1,380,000
          Aug 25
          217
          2,8689,370
          42,010269,000
          1,450,000
          Aug 20
          205
          2,8629,302
          41,990265,000
          1,490,000
          Aug 15
          204
          2,8519,100
          48,600418,000
          2,100,000
          Aug 10
          207
          2,8529,075
          48,800377,000
          2,450,000
          Aug 5
          205
          2,8549,070
          48,500282,000
          1,990,000
          July 30
          207
          2,8459,050
          48,200308,000
          2,040,000
          July 25
          199
          2,8439,030
          48,100239,000
          1,630,000
          July 20
          215
          2,8509,060
          48,100204,000
          1,500,000
          July 15
          200
          2,8258,940
          46,200180,000
          1,140,000
          July 10
          189 2,8208,930
          46,000175,000
          1,170,000
          July 5
          180 2,8458,910
          46,000173,000
          1,170,000
          June 30
          177 2,8908,840
          45,600161,000
          1,340,000
          June 25
          172 2,9208,860
          44,700141,000
          1,190,000
          June 21st 2020
          Actual Deaths:
          171 2,657 8,481
          42,731 122,468
          472,779
          June 20 forecasts
          for Year 2020

          170
          2,8109,000
          46,800145,000
          1,145,000
          June 16
          170
          2,9409,660
          48,900140,000
          905,000
          June 12
          172
          3,17010,200
          47,400141,000
          852,000
          June 9
          172
          3,5309,430
          49,200134,000
          640,000
          June 6
          191
          2,7709,700
          45,500127,000
          525,000
          June 3
          197
          2,5508,470
          42,500122,000
          471,000
          June 1
          216
          2,5408,370
          42,000122,000
          466,000
          May 30
          225
          2,5307,990
          41,600121,000
          428,000
          May 28
          217
          2,4807,870
          41,100119,000
          420,000
          May 26
          225
          2,3907,590
          41,600119,000
          420,000
          May 24
          224

          7,470

          120,000
          420,000
          May 22
          223

          7,300

          117,000
          409,000
          May 20
          196

          7,040

          111,000
          403,000
          May 18
          193

          7,135

          110,000
          406,000
          May 16
          180

          7,125

          111,000
          396,000
          May 14
          174

          7,025

          109,000
          381,000
          May 12
          189

          6,850

          105,000
          386,000
          May 10
          222

          6,900

          116,000
          393,000
          May 8
          183

          6,860

          119,000
          339,000
          May 6
          202

          6,475

          103,000
          352,000
          May 4
          200

          6,000

          95,000
          386,000
          May 2
          205

          5,900

          117,000
          380,000
          Apr 30 2020
          238

          5,120

          80,000
          380,000
          Apr 28 forecasts
          for June 21st 2020
          176

          3,960

          70,500
          314,000

          TRUMP-VIRUS THRUST USA ECONOMY into TECHNICAL RECESSION in MARCH 2020

            Dec 18th 2021 update - So how did the USA embark on this historic crisis?  Here's a clue:  During a White House Rose Garden virtual town hall on March 25th 2020, the President stated to the Fox News host:

          "You'll have packed churches all over the country.  It would be a resurrection of biblical proportions.  I would love to have the country opened up and raring to go by Easter.  It would be a beautiful thing. "Our country has to get back to work, otherwise it's going to be very hard to start it up again.  We can't lose the advantage we have."

          It was on this precise day America was infected with "the TrumpVirus".  On that day the USA had only 4% of global Covid deaths - apropos considering the nation has 4% of the world's population.

          But it marked the day everything changed.  And leads one to ask why does the USA have 23% of world's cumulative Covid cases, 56% of the today's global "active" cases & 24% of worldwide body bags?  The answer is founded in its citizenry electing a reality show celebrity as its President.  This business con man's failure to mitigate Covid-19's spread runs the length of his stay in office.

          Albeit Obama's Homeland Security Chief (Lisa Monaco) briefed the incoming transition team with a robust "playbook", un-indicted Individual-1 shut down the White House's National Security Council's Pandemic Unit in 2018.  Dr Dennis Carol's Predict Program was cancelled by the White House in 2019.  And 'cuz their very public warnings were rocking the stock markets in Feb/2020, CDC's renowned disease experts Sarah Messonnier & Dr Bright were abruptly reassigned.

          This prudent planning team was replaced by a muse "this flu will just go away with warm April sunshine".  After his "miracle" failed, the self-proclaimed "extremely stable genius" offered his cult following hydroxychloroquine, disinfectant injections and internal UV light remedies.

          It was soon evident many continued to drink the Kool-Aid (or bleach?).  Prior to flattening their curves, mostly "red States" relaxed physical distancing, stay-at-home policies, masking & contact tracing.

          From the onset it was evident Trump's "Opening Up America Again" campaign was rooted in politics.  Despite his bravado, to that point in time he failed to attain Obama's multiple 5% GDP growth rates.  2020's Q1/Q2/Q3 were his last-kick-at-the-can - hence his nonsensical dampened pandemic rhetoric thru January, February & March.  With Q1 going negative (-5%), he knew a large part of his Nov/2020 Election demise rested on Q2 & Q3 GDP.

          So the motive for his March 25th plea (above) for Easter church goers to return to work April 14th is clear.  As a ratings savvy guy, he knew Q2 GDP (for Apr/May/June) would be announced in late July (with Aug27th & Sept30th revisions).  The Q3 GDP announcement was Oct29th - a mere five days prior to Election Day (Nov3rd).

          And evidently, he's in huge trouble for failing to contain Covid-19.  The uncontained TrumpVirus resulted in GDP crashing at a historic -31% pace in Q2.  And of the 75 million workers initiating unemployment claims due to the pandemic during his term, 2.5 million remain on the rolls (1.7 mil pre-pandemic).  With no sign of his boasted V-shaped Recovery, Individual-1 tried some desperate manoeuvres ... like forcing schools to re-open ... attempting to postpone the Election ... sabotaging the postal system for an electoral advantage ... and challenging those mail-in ballots and finally ... recruiting nationalist militia to overthrow the Capitol on January 6th.

          The President caused a TrumpVirus resurgence only for the purpose of salvaging his legacy.  He desperately wanted to avoid voters going to the polls realizing The Donald (alone) was at fault for April's 22% U-6 Unemployment Rate & plunging the U.S. economy into its deepest crash (-31% GDP) ever - including the Great Depression.

          The TRENDLines Recession Indicator was the first macro-economic model to accurately reveal the magnitude of the Great Recession in real time.  In the 2013 chart below, TRI was forecasting a USA austerity crisis to occur in 2024 due to an uncontrolled $26 trillion National Debt.  But that day was pre-empted by a black swan event:  the TrumpVirus - a crisis of epic proportions in mismanagement, lack of containment & mitigation failures - resulting in 815,000 fatalities (thus far).

          Despite interventions by the Federal Reserve via its monetary policy tool box and fiscal policy injections of trillions of dollars by Congress, it is probable the  American economy will suffer long-term consequences.  April's "real" Unemployment Rate (U-6) of 22% was the worst since the 26% high (1933) in the Great Depression (see chart below).  Q2GDP plunged 31% (annualized rate), dwarfing the 2008 & 1980 downturns and anything seen in the great Depression.

          TRI USA long

          the traditional definitions

          TECHNICAL RECESSION:  Avg Gross Domestic Product growth rate (GDP) declines 0% to 2% for at least 2 Quarters
          SEVERE RECESSION:  Avg GDP declines 2% to 4% for at least 4 Qtrs (1 yr)
          DEPRESSION:  Avg GDP declines 4% to 8% for at least 8 Qtrs (2 yrs)
          GREATER DEPRESSION:  Avg GDP declines over 8% for at least 16 Qtrs (4 yrs)

          RECOVERY PERIOD:  monthly/quarterly nominal GDP expanding but remains below pre-contraction peak
          EXPANSION PERIOD: 
          monthly/quarterly nominal GDP finally exceeds pre-contraction peak

          STRUCTURAL GDP (TRIX):  Real GDP adjusted for Fiscal Policy Deficit/Surplus effects to reveal growth rate of underlying economy
           
          UPPER CLASS:  family wealth (net worth) is among the top 1% of society
          MIDDLE CLASS:  family income is among the top 10% of society
          WORKING CLASS:  all the rest...

          U-6 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE:  Marginally attached workers are persons who currently are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the recent past.  Discouraged workers  a subset of marginally attached, have given a job-market related reason for not looking currently for a job.  Persons employed part time for economic reasons are those who want and are available for full-time work but have had to settle for a part-time schedule.

          real unemployment rates





          START
          FINISH




          ~

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           Last modified:  May 20, 2022  ~  (? 1989-2022 TRENDLines Research)


          keywords:  projection prediction forecast indicate guess estimate how many people will die perish in bc british columbia canada canadians usa americans united states globe world worldwide earth result from corona virus covid-19 pandemic flu death toll daily total cumulative fatalities perish victims trendlines freddy hutter CDC IHME model pplm post-peak linearization social physical distancing


          TRENDLines Research's

          YUKON PROTOCOL
          for the UN's
          CLIMATE FINANCE DELIVERY PLAN
          & its GREEN CLIMATE FUND

          Nov 24th 2021 - TRENDLines Research published its "Yukon Protocol" on Aug 23 2009 to provide guidance to the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) and policymakers of developed nations in establishing equitable contributions wrt the $100 billion Climate Finance Delivery Plan -- reaffirmed at COP26-Glasgow-2021.

          As background, after each of the UN's IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) reports, developing nations begrudged demands on them to forego economical coal, oil and gases as their gracious part in "saving the planet".

          Their objections are founded in the perceived unfairness that while today's wealthy nations achieved their status in part via industrialization under a high emissions regime, the latter has undergone an epiphany of sorts and so to suppress imminent climate change due to past sins, they now chastise developing nations for utilizing those same efficient fossil fuel resources to foster their growth.

          So as a fairness measure to offset the cost burden of low emission infrastructure in young economies, COP15-Copenhagen-2009 proposed a Green Climate Fund (GCF) from which they can draw upon -- and to be funded by mature nations.

          Subsequent COP's (Conference Of the Parties) established the GCF, but a dozen years on, donor nations continue a struggle to find equitable contribution levels.

          TR's Yukon Protocol suggests a truly relevant apportionment of the $100 billion Climate Finance Delivery Plan rests in setting national contributions in accordance to each country's share of cumulative co2 emissions.

          The Yukon Protocol's latest methodology divides up the $100 billion Climate Finance target among the top 100 co2 emitters using their known prorated share of cumulative emissions (since Year 1750).  Said 100 are responsible for 97% of total emissions for this period.  The remaining 114 nations are candidates for GCF grants & loans.

          With full compliance, annual contributions within the Protocol range from $31 million assessed against Jamaica - the lowest of the 100 top emitters (0.03%) to $25.65 billion due from the largest - the USA (25.65%).  Over 2/3 of the target is achieved levying the top ten emitters.

          Credit to CDIAC, GCP & OWID acknowledged as data sources.

          link to 5pg printable PDF


          YUKON PROTOCOL FOR CLIMATE FINANCE DELIVERY PLAN


          Top 100
           emitter nations

          funding proportion based on cumulative co2 emissions


          assessed share of
          $100 billion target


          emitter rating

           

           

           

           

          United States

          25.65%

          $25,651,095,494

          1

          China

          13.76%

          $13,755,684,167

          2

          Russia

          7.12%

          $7,120,711,038

          3

          Germany

          5.75%

          $5,746,176,106

          4

          United Kingdom

          4.87%

          $4,867,713,931

          5

          Japan

          4.04%

          $4,040,926,002

          6

          India

          3.25%

          $3,245,142,621

          7

          France

          2.39%

          $2,387,350,145

          8

          Canada

          2.07%

          $2,066,969,822

          9

          Ukraine

          1.85%

          $1,849,937,991

          10

          Poland

          1.73%

          $1,725,919,802

          11

          Italy

          1.52%

          $1,519,222,819

          12

          South Africa

          1.29%

          $1,291,856,139

          13

          Mexico

          1.24%

          $1,240,181,893

          14

          Iran

          1.15%

          $1,147,168,251

          15

          Australia

          1.14%

          $1,136,833,402

          16

          South Korea

          1.06%

          $1,064,489,458

          17

          Brazil

          0.95%

          $950,806,118

          18

          Saudi Arabia

          0.93%

          $930,136,420

          19

          Spain

          0.92%

          $919,801,571

          20

          Indonesia

          0.85%

          $847,457,627

          21

          Kazakhstan

          0.84%

          $837,122,778

          22

          Belgium

          0.78%

          $775,113,683

          23

          Czechia

          0.74%

          $744,109,136

          24

          Netherlands

          0.72%

          $723,439,438

          25

          Turkey

          0.65%

          $651,095,494

          26

          Taiwan

          0.54%

          $537,412,154

          27

          Romania

          0.53%

          $527,077,305

          28

          Argentina

          0.52%

          $516,742,456

          29

          Venezuela

          0.49%

          $485,737,908

          30

          Thailand

          0.44%

          $444,398,512

          31

          Uzbekistan

          0.41%

          $413,393,964

          32

          Egypt

          0.38%

          $382,389,417

          33

          Malaysia

          0.36%

          $361,719,719

          34

          Austria

          0.34%

          $341,050,021

          35

          Belarus

          0.33%

          $330,715,172

          36

          North Korea

          0.32%

          $320,380,322

          37

          Hungary

          0.31%

          $310,045,473

          38

          Pakistan

          0.31%

          $310,045,473

          38

          Sweden

          0.31%

          $310,045,473

          38

          United Arab Emirates

          0.29%

          $289,375,775

          41

          Algeria

          0.28%

          $279,040,926

          42

          Iraq

          0.28%

          $279,040,926

          43

          Denmark

          0.26%

          $258,371,228

          44

          Greece

          0.25%

          $248,036,379

          45

          Bulgaria

          0.24%

          $237,701,530

          46

          Nigeria

          0.24%

          $237,701,530

          46

          Slovakia

          0.24%

          $237,701,530

          46

          Vietnam

          0.23%

          $227,366,680

          49

          Colombia

          0.21%

          $206,696,982

          50

          Philippines

          0.21%

          $206,696,982

          50

          Finland

          0.20%

          $196,362,133

          52

          Switzerland

          0.19%

          $186,027,284

          53

          Chile

          0.18%

          $175,692,435

          54

          Kuwait

          0.18%

          $175,692,435

          54

          Serbia

          0.18%

          $175,692,435

          54

          Azerbaijan

          0.17%

          $165,357,586

          57

          Norway

          0.17%

          $165,357,586

          57

          Portugal

          0.17%

          $165,357,586

          57

          Turkmenistan

          0.17%

          $165,357,586

          57

          Israel

          0.14%

          $144,687,888

          61

          Ireland

          0.13%

          $134,353,038

          62

          Singapore

          0.13%

          $134,353,038

          62

          Libya

          0.12%

          $124,018,189

          64

          Qatar

          0.12%

          $124,018,189

          64

          New Zealand

          0.11%

          $113,683,340

          66

          Peru

          0.11%

          $113,683,340

          66

          Syria

          0.11%

          $113,683,340

          66

          Cuba

          0.10%

          $103,348,491

          69

          Hong Kong

          0.10%

          $103,348,491

          69

          Morocco

          0.10%

          $103,348,491

          69

          Bangladesh

          0.09%

          $93,013,642

          72

          Estonia

          0.09%

          $93,013,642

          72

          Trinidad & Tobago

          0.09%

          $93,013,642

          72

          Lithuania

          0.08%

          $82,678,793

          75

          Croatia

          0.07%

          $72,343,944

          76

          Ecuador

          0.07%

          $72,343,944

          76

          Oman

          0.07%

          $72,343,944

          76

          Bosnia & Herzegovina

          0.06%

          $62,009,095

          79

          Georgia

          0.06%

          $62,009,095

          79

          Moldova

          0.06%

          $62,009,095

          79

          Bahrain

          0.05%

          $51,674,246

          82

          Kyrgyzstan

          0.05%

          $51,674,246

          82

          Latvia

          0.05%

          $51,674,246

          82

          Luxembourg

          0.05%

          $51,674,246

          82

          Slovenia

          0.05%

          $51,674,246

          82

          Tunisia

          0.05%

          $51,674,246

          82

          Zimbabwe

          0.05%

          $51,674,246

          82

          Angola

          0.04%

          $41,339,396

          89

          Armenia

          0.04%

          $41,339,396

          89

          Dominican Republic

          0.04%

          $41,339,396

          89

          Jordan

          0.04%

          $41,339,396

          89

          Lebanon

          0.04%

          $41,339,396

          89

          Mongolia

          0.04%

          $41,339,396

          89

          North Macedonia

          0.04%

          $41,339,396

          89

          Yemen

          0.04%

          $41,339,396

          89

          Bolivia

          0.03%

          $31,004,547

          97

          Curacao

          0.03%

          $31,004,547

          97

          Guatemala

          0.03%

          $31,004,547

          97

          Jamaica

          0.03%

          $31,004,547

          97

           

          100.00%

           

          assessed nations:

          ver 21.1116

          100.00%

          $100,000,000,000

          100

           

           

           

           

           

           

           

           

          114 Recipient Entities:

           

           

           

           

           

           

           

          Kenya

           

           

           

          Myanmar

           

           

           

          Sri Lanka

           

           

           

          Sudan

           

           

           

          Tajikistan

           

           

           

          Albania

           

           

           

          Brunei

           

           

           

          Cote d'Ivoire

           

           

           

          Cyprus

           

           

           

          Gabon

           

           

           

          Ghana

           

           

           

          Honduras

           

           

           

          Panama

           

           

           

          Uruguay

           

           

           

          Afghanistan

           

           

           

          Bahamas

           

           

           

          Benin

           

           

           

          Botswana

           

           

           

          Cambodia

           

           

           

          Cameroon

           

           

           

          Costa Rica

           

           

           

          Democratic Republic of Congo

           

           

           

          El Salvador

           

           

           

          Equatorial Guinea

           

           

           

          Ethiopia

           

           

           

          Guyana

           

           

           

          Iceland

           

           

           

          Kosovo

           

           

           

          Laos

           

           

           

          Madagascar

           

           

           

          Malta

           

           

           

          Mauritius

           

           

           

          Montenegro

           

           

           

          Mozambique

           

           

           

          Nepal

           

           

           

          New Caledonia

           

           

           

          Nicaragua

           

           

           

          Papua New Guinea

           

           

           

          Paraguay

           

           

           

          Senegal

           

           

           

          Suriname

           

           

           

          Tanzania

           

           

           

          Uganda

           

           

           

          Zambia

           

           

           

          Andorra

           

           

           

          Anguilla

           

           

           

          Antigua & Barbuda

           

           

           

          Aruba

           

           

           

          Barbados

           

           

           

          Belize

           

           

           

          Bermuda

           

           

           

          Bhutan

           

           

           

          Bonaire Sint Eustatius & Saba

           

           

           

          British Virgin Islands

           

           

           

          Burkina Faso

           

           

           

          Burundi

           

           

           

          Cape Verde

           

           

           

          Central African Republic

           

           

           

          Chad

           

           

           

          Comoros

           

           

           

          Congo

           

           

           

          Cook Islands

           

           

           

          Djibouti

           

           

           

          Dominica

           

           

           

          Eritrea

           

           

           

          Eswatini

           

           

           

          Faeroe Islands

           

           

           

          Fiji

           

           

           

          French Polynesia

           

           

           

          Gambia

           

           

           

          Greenland

           

           

           

          Grenada

           

           

           

          Guinea

           

           

           

          Guinea-Bissau

           

           

           

          Haiti

           

           

           

          Kiribati

           

           

           

          Lesotho

           

           

           

          Liberia

           

           

           

          Liechtenstein

           

           

           

          Macao

           

           

           

          Malawi

           

           

           

          Maldives

           

           

           

          Mali

           

           

           

          Marshall Islands

           

           

           

          Mauritania

           

           

           

          Micronesia

           

           

           

          Montserrat

           

           

           

          Namibia

           

           

           

          Nauru

           

           

           

          Niger

           

           

           

          Niue

           

           

           

          Palau

           

           

           

          Palestine

           

           

           

          Rwanda

           

           

           

          Saint Helena

           

           

           

          Saint Kitts & Nevis

           

           

           

          Saint Lucia

           

           

           

          Saint Pierre & Miquelon

           

           

           

          Saint Vincent & Grenadines

           

           

           

          Samoa

           

           

           

          Sao Tome & Principe

           

           

           

          Seychelles

           

           

           

          Sierra Leone

           

           

           

          Sint Maarten (Dutch)

           

           

           

          Solomon Islands

           

           

           

          Somalia

           

           

           

          South Sudan

           

           

           

          Timor

           

           

           

          Togo

           

           

           

          Tonga

           

           

           

          Turks & Caicos Islands

           

           

           

          Tuvalu

           

           

           

          Vanuatu

           

           

           

          Wallis & Futuna

           

           

           

           

          About TRENDLines Research

          Data analyst Freddy Hutter of Vancouver Island BC has developed models & methodologies for macro-economic charts & guidance for policy-makers, stakeholders. legislators, investors, educators, and the public with a long term multi-disciplinary perspective since 1989.  TRENDLines removes the noise in (economic) data to reveal the underlying trends.  Specialties include:  Recession Indicators for Canada, USA & China;  Realty Bubble Indicators for Canada, USA, UK & Australia;  Global Oil Production & Price Component analysis/forecasts;  & national, provincial Party & Presidential political election projections.  Covid-19 ultimate deaths forecasting is the most recent endeavour.



          ~




          ~

          • the FreeVenue chart-of-the-day is a public posting of guidance (charts, tables & analysis)

          • Trendlines Research has been publishing charts & analysis relating to Peak Oil, Macro-Economics, Climate Change & Political Election Projections since 1989.  Data analyst Freddy Hutter's media and professional commentary on these issues commenced in 1973

          • all charts, tables & text ?1989-2021 all rights reserved TRENDLines Research 

          ~

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